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Terms of Reference

Installation of Integrated Early Warning System

(CBDRM component of BDRP programme)

VEER (Voice for Education & Equal Rights) means “TO CHANGE DIRECTION” and “brother” in the local language Seraiki, is a registered Non Governmental Organization established for rendering its services to the marginalized communities of District and FR D.I.Khan, KPK.

The organizational objectives accentuate to mobilize and aware indigenous people about their rights and to solve their problems with their active involvement.

In D.I.Khan, the Rodh Kohi area of the project was encountered with the severe conflicts regarding water distribution between the FR DIK and Rod Kohi area people. For addressing those water right issues a local committee i.e. Rud Gudh was established in 1996. Nevertheless, committee could not appropriately manage its specified tasks due to conflicts amongst up & middle stream people and subsequently got dissolved in 1997. The committee later decided not only to focus on water related issues but also worked towards socio-economic issues.

Hence the same conflicting situation gave birth to the emergence of Gandi Umer Khan Social Welfare Society in 1999, which was renamed as VEER in December, 2001. VEER was initially focused on resolution of conflicts aroused due to water distribution however over the time organization developed a methodology to address the human rights in other areas i.e. education, advocacy and health as well.

Background

Building Disaster Resilience in Pakistan (BDRP) project is being implemented by CAWI consortium funded by DFID (UK) in province Punjab, KPK and Sindh. In this consortium Concern Worldwide (lead), Acted, International Rescue Committee and Welthungerhilfe are partner, whereas CWW and Acted are implementing BDRP project in both in KPK and Sindh, IRC in Sindh and Welthungerhilfe is implementing the same in province Punjab.

VEER Development Organization is implementing partner of CAWI consortium lead organization CWW in District Dera Ismail Khan. Under BDRP project 07 flood prone union councils (River flood and Torrential/ Flash Floods) in Tehsils Paharpur, D.I.Khan and Daraban of district D.I Khan have selected with total 70 villages. Following are the targeted UCs:

  1. Bilot Sharif
  2. Kath Garh
  3. Laar
  4. Dhap Shumali
  5. Mandhran
  6. Chehkan
  7. Gandi Umer Khan

1.                   Rationale for the assignment

Flood Modeling is the simulation of real flood events which identifies the potential flood prone areas such as low laying areas, creeks, floodplains along main rivers and urban areas where river flood waters can enters due to low ground profile. The modeling also gives an estimation of flood water thickness in potentially inundation areas.  It also helps in prediction of flood likelihood in those areas, which not hit in the past by any flood event or considered relatively safe particularly for critical development interventions. Flood modelling for both River and Torrential floods seen as an integral part of flood management.

Models used for planning and designing of risk reduction infrastructures as well as for forecasting floods EWS. The output of the model in the form of hazard and risk maps will be used as awareness and sensitization tool for public awareness campaigns. These tools also provides a basis for risk conscious development planning. Decision support systems based on models increasingly used by engineers and scientists in flood risk management.

Specific Objectives

  • Identify the hazardous spots along main river/stream along river and hills which posing floods and hill torrent risk to build environment
  • Identify elements at risk (critical facilities, infrastructures and community assets including livelihood options)
  • Develop a hazard and risk maps for public awareness and sensitization who are under threat of riverine floods and hill torrents.
  • Predict the potential inundations areas in advance and provide real time early alerts/warnings to at risk communities
  • To develop district level flood forecasting tool for district administration to use as planning for risk reduction, mitigation, EWS and recovery.

2.         Scope

Target Beneficiaries –Relevant district authorities/line departments, Community men, women and children of the targeted communities.

Geographical scope–Above mentioned 7 Union Councils of D.I.Khan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (list of villages and U/Cs will be provided later)

3.         Approach and Methodology

This section describes the process involved GIS based modeling by using HECRAS. Details of each step is given below:

a)      Data collection about element at risk from field and secondary sources available on internet etc.

b)      Development of vectors layers for elements at risk and critical facilities/infrastructures

c)       Use of digital elevation model with at least 30meters resolution or even less.

d)      Data interpretations and running of repeated model in HECRAS until achievement of near to natural scenarios. 

e)      Data refining especially rainfall data (rainfall is the key variable for modeling the flash flood)

f)       Topography analysis of the area (delineation of controlled volume/bounding box)

4.    Output of the consultancy

  • Satellite imagery/digital Elevation Model (DEM) from free sources available on internet with minimum resolution of 30mters or less.
  • Data Collection regarding elements at risk such as community settled areas, schools, hospitals and road networks, canals, mosques and water bodies, embankment etc.
  •  Digitization of all data available as a elements at risk and development of Vector Layers
  • Development of Vulnerability curve (for elements at risk-typically for urban areas at downstream of Torrential sources)
  •  Simulation of scenarios in terms of water discharge, potential area coverage and inundation as  well impact in purview of intensity. Communities
  • Key alert message to communicate about;
    • Potential breach/spill over areas
    • Potential hit areas,
    • Potential critical facilities at risk,
    • Lag time of flood water to reach certain location,
    • Population at risk (male & female/children/old age and PWDs)
    •  Weather Information System ( early advisories)

5.         Deliverables

The individual/ firm will produce above outputs and handover in the form of raw data while following key deliverables (subject to further refinement in consultation with the individual/firm) will be delivered to respective designated focal persons of district administration.

1)      Final report including recommendation covering above outputs

2)      Provision of digitized data of elements at risk (vector layer) .i.e. river network, drainage network, road network, water bodies, embankment both in river flood area and flash flood area etc.

3)      UC/ Areas at Risk Identified with classification in high, medium and low  (with colour coding)

4)      Flood modelling and mapping (River Indus) on past flood data/history for targeted UCs of river flood and flash/torrential flood areas.

5)      Riverine Flood and flash flood (hill torrent) scenario models ( from minimum impact to worst scenarios)

6)      Hazard and risk maps (for entire area of targeted in the district and individually for each UC)

6.         Lines of Communication

The consultant will coordinate with VDO /Concern’s BDRP section on the directions of district administration in purview of ground needs.

7.         Skills, Experience and Qualifications

  • For Individual consultants  with Master’s Degree in Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing /Geography/ Geo-Hydrology/ Hydro-informatics/Water Resource Engineering 
  • At least 2 years’ experience of riverine and Flash Flood (hill torrent) modelling & mapping is desired. Familiarity and experience in working with historic flood data (2010) in district D.I.Khan and surrounding periphery are desired.
  • In depth GIS modelling and remote sensing Skills and practical experience on related tools will be an asset. 
  • Documentation experience in conducting similar nature of Early Warning Systems.
  • Available during assignment period and can conduct for identification of safe locations in targeted UCs.
  • Inclusion of women in team will is an added advantage.

8.         Structure of Technical Proposal/Expression of Interest and Submission Guidelines

Interested potential consultants’ team/ firm with relevant experience submit sealed technical and financial proposals according to following details;

  • Individual/firm profiles clearly stating the company’s profile with demonstrated experience in similar project with sample outputs.
  • Previous and existing client/project’s list with details of various assignments completed.
  • Individual/firm will provide evidence of previous work produced, preferably for the development sector clients (maps, report/videos, recording, data of GIS layers etc) 
  • Detailed work plan of flood modelling with clearly laid out deadlines defined in the RFP supporting proposal.
  • CVs/profiles of the team, who will work on the assignment.

9.       Monitoring and Evaluation:

  • The activity may be monitored by the M&E Person of CWW / VEER Development Organization.

10.     Time frame

The said activity is expected to be concluded within 90 working days first starting from 1st Week of September, 2019, with following break up of activities;

  • Acquisition of remote sensing data in August 2019, Data Collection regarding elements at risks in September 2019, data capturing through digitization in September 2019, Development of Vector Layers in September 2019, data interpretations, analysis and scenario development, Simulations till end of October 2019.

11.   Logistics

  • Consultant will be the responsible for his boarding & lodging during trainings.
  • Logistics cost should be included in consultancy fee.
    • Costing should be inclusive of all applicable taxes of Federal Board of Revenue/Provisional Revenue Authority.

Bidder Instructions:

  • Technical & Financial Proposal: should be submitted on printed paper in a sealed envelope. Clearly marked “Proposal for Early Warning System”.
  • Rates: The prices must be inclusive of all applicable taxes.
  • Certificate: Please provide copy of your National Tax Number/CNIC
  • Payment Terms: Payment will be release through cross cheque on satisfactory completion of supplies /services as per agreed term and conditions in the Contract, upon submission of Invoice / supporting documents for the said supplies / services.
  • Taxes: Tax will be deducted at source as per Govt. of Pakistan tax law / FBR’s updated guidelines
  • Ethics: Suppliers/Firms must not be engaged in any child labour, human rights abuses, corruption, fraudulent, collusive or coercive practices including but not limited to applying/ bidding by multiple names / companies. If any bidder is found to be involved in such practices his/her bid may be rejected and the companies in question permanently black listed.
  • Criteria: Lowest price will not be the sole criteria; quality, delivery time and previous experience will also be considered. Bid committee reserves the right to change the quantities or cancel/reject any or all offers without assigning any reason.
  • For more on the assignment, please direct your queries to [email protected]   before deadline.




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